Antique-Tractor (ATIS) Community

Miscellaneous Forums => 'round the pot-bellied stove => Topic started by: GeorgeBest on December 02, 2009, 11:37:13 AM

Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 02, 2009, 11:37:13 AM: How about a contest?! :D

Person guessing the closest date we reach the 8000 member mark.

I'll donate a 6 month subscription to Western Antique Iron Trader!

To start with you can only make one guess. I'm not sure what the rules should be but was thinking that maybe a person could post another guess once the date of there last guess had past.

Let me know what you think the rules should be, but for the time being only one guess per person.

George

Merry Christmas :D
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: jahaze on December 02, 2009, 02:05:58 PM: Geore, we only have 135 members since the forum started, so using less than complex math, that is aboure 50 members a year, so if we keep up the current rate, it will only be 160 years to reach 8000 members, so it looks like my guess should be DEcember 1, 2170. Please let me know when I win :)
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 02, 2009, 02:39:11 PM: We'll never have 8000 REAL members. Sorry Spencer.

But if you look at the number of members shown at the bottom of the home page, you'll see we are at 7181 now and still growing. Granted the growth is all phoney user names that someone is generating to hack the forums. But we might as well have some fun with their attempts.

I would be curious to know who is the last real member to join. Would be nice if they would post a message and an introduce themself to the forum.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Charlie V on December 02, 2009, 09:05:12 PM: Statistically 8000 will happen on Sunday, February 21, 2010, George. It could be a day or five one way or the other, but my "official entry" is Sunday, February 21, 2010. Good luck to all.

Charlie V.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 03, 2009, 10:59:43 AM: Sorry Charlie, but I think you're way off on your guess.

I'm thinking it will be before the end of this year.

We had 6888 on Nov 25, and today we're at 7202. Thats 314 in the past week :eek:

I'll even play along and say Christmas day is the day we'll hit 8000 :D
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Charlie V on December 03, 2009, 01:37:30 PM: You are probably a lot nearer than I am, George. I used the average from the entire life of the list which is ten per day. I guess maybe I should have weighted it more based on current as you did, rather than the early days. Oh well.

Charlie V.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Merton on December 03, 2009, 09:45:39 PM: Why are so many just now finding this site?
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 04, 2009, 10:43:12 AM: Quote from: Merton;926
Why are so many just now finding this site?

We are not being found by "many". I think there are just a few people generating all the new members. Spencer could probably tell us more about this, but doubt that he will. Its been a long time since he's posted anything.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: DaveErnst on December 04, 2009, 11:11:56 AM: My bet is January 15. Working on your winder handle.
Dave
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Charlie V on December 07, 2009, 06:30:27 PM: Hey George! Only 663 to go as of right now. It is beginning to look like you may win a subscription to your own publication, or are family members excluded?

Charlie V.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 11, 2009, 11:11:52 AM: Charlie,

Only 567 to go now!

I'm surprised that everyone hasn't made a guess on this. After all this is a contest with no cost to enter and you may actually win something.

I'm still sticking with my Christmas Day entry. (and yes, I can enter my own contest).

If anyone wants to change their guess now, feel free to do so.

NEW RULE..... no changes or new guesses after we reach the 7700 mark.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Charlie V on December 11, 2009, 12:58:08 PM: Based on a second chance option I have polished my top secret crystal ball several times and my new entry is January 2, 2010 to reach the 8000 mark.

I cannot answer your question, George. It could be folks have no sense of fun and adventure, or it could be some are waiting to enter for a 7999 count to have a strategic advantage. I think the 7700 cut off is a wise idea. In a nutshell, it does not matter. My January 2 entry is a sure winner.

Charlie V.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 15, 2009, 11:33:03 AM: Since we're at 7561 and still under the 7700 mark, I'll revise my entry to be 12/29/09.

At the moment only entrants other than myself are Charlie 1/2/10 and Dave 1/15/10. I'm ignoring jahaze's entry of 12/1/2170 because none of us will be around that date to see how many subscribers there are!

At the rate we're going I think we'll reach 7700 by this weekend, so you'd better revise or get your guess in during the next couple days. After 7700 is reached entries and revisions are closed.

Just in case you don't know what you can win. It is a 6 month subscription to Western Antique Iron Trader.

http://www.irontrader.com
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: RG8800 on December 17, 2009, 02:47:18 PM: Just as a wild guess I will say 8000 by Jan. 31, 2010.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 18, 2009, 02:26:23 PM: Quote from: RG8800;949
Just as a wild guess I will say 8000 by Jan. 31, 2010.

Think you may want to move your date up a bit. I'm thinking we'll pass the 7700 mark this weekend. Although I must admit that it is cheaper for me if someone in the U.S. wins rather than a Canadian as it costs $1 just to mail an issue to Canada.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 18, 2009, 05:30:01 PM: Looks like 7700 will be reached on Saturday at the latest. Only 19 to go at the moment!

Get your last minute guesses in now!
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 19, 2009, 10:32:53 AM: Just checked and Saturday morning we're at 7704, so the contest is closed with only a few entries.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Charlie V on December 23, 2009, 06:27:13 PM: 194 to go and they are dropping like flies, George.

Charlie:)
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 24, 2009, 11:19:01 AM: Charlie, your entry is looking pretty good at the moment.
My 29th is entry is good too. Not sure if we said anything about how to figure which guess is closest. Maybe it will be the 29th and there won't be any questions :D

Have a Merry Christmas everyone!
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Charlie V on December 24, 2009, 07:19:00 PM: Hi George,

My expectation was a direct hit of 8,000 on the selected day. The only thing to muddy that slightly would be time zones. However, youse the boss. Good luck to all contestants.

Merry Christmas to all.

Charlie V.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 28, 2009, 11:10:31 AM: Looks like then next day or two and we'll reach the 8000 mark.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Alan Riley on December 28, 2009, 01:11:11 PM: Quote from: GeorgeBest;1001
Looks like then next day or two and we'll reach the 8000 mark.

Yep, shows 7923 right now. I wonder how they dream up all those user names.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: DaveErnst on December 29, 2009, 11:24:04 AM: Who is the winner?
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 29, 2009, 11:30:58 AM: Dave,

Haven't reached the 8000 mark yet.

I have today as my guess but with 63 to go I doubt that will happen today.
Charlie V has the next best guess of January 2nd, but I think my guess will end up being the closest one.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Charlie V on December 31, 2009, 07:55:32 AM: George,

It looks like today will be the day to hit the mark, George. This forum has gotten an unprecedented amount of attention of late. FYI. I am also not able to load pictures from my PC to this forum.

Charlie V.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on December 31, 2009, 12:21:37 PM: Only 16 to go now!

So Charlie, how do we determine the winner if it happens today as it likely will do?

I think I had the 29th and you have the 2nd. Today, the 31st, is the middle between those two dates.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Charlie V on December 31, 2009, 02:50:46 PM: That is really easy, George. I will simple break the rules and change my guess to 12/31/09. ***** Only kidding. You are not allowed to ask me that question because it is your contest, so you get to figure it out.

Charlie V.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: DaveErnst on January 01, 2010, 10:14:37 AM: 7992 as of this morning! Looks as if I lose.....
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: GeorgeBest on January 01, 2010, 12:40:43 PM: Yep, looks like Charlie pretty much has a lock on it now unless the spammers take a couple weeks off so Dave can win.
Dave, you might consider pleading with the spammers to help you out although I doubt they read anything we post.:D
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Charlie V on January 01, 2010, 10:04:00 PM: 10 PM EST time on Jan. 1, 2010 and we are parked on 7999. I like it. Happy New Year to all.

Charlie V.
Title: 8000 Contest!
Post by: Charlie V on January 02, 2010, 07:08:50 AM: I am just mumbling to myself here. I took a glance at 2 AM EST. The number was (you guessed it) "8000" even. Cool to see it show up after a month of watching. Thanks George. This was a fun idea.

Charlie V.