How about a contest?!

Person guessing the  closest date we reach the 8000 member mark.

I'll donate a 6 month subscription to Western Antique Iron Trader!

To start with you can only make one guess.  I'm not sure what the rules should be but was thinking that maybe a person could post another guess once the date of there last guess had past.

Let me know what you think the rules should be, but for the time being only one guess per person.

George

Merry Christmas

Geore, we only have 135 members since the forum started, so using less than complex math, that is aboure 50 members a year, so if we keep up the current rate, it will only be 160 years to reach 8000 members, so it looks like my guess should be DEcember 1, 2170.  Please let me know when I win

We'll never have 8000 REAL members. Sorry Spencer.

But if you look at the number of members shown at the bottom of the home page, you'll see we are at 7181 now and still growing.  Granted the growth is all phoney user names that someone is generating to hack the forums. But we might as well have some fun with their attempts.

I would be curious to know who is the last real member to join.  Would be nice if they would post a message and an introduce themself to the forum.

Statistically 8000 will happen on Sunday, February 21, 2010, George.  It could be a day or five one way or the other, but my "official entry" is Sunday, February 21, 2010. Good luck to all.

Charlie V.

Sorry Charlie, but I think you're way off on your guess.

I'm thinking it will be before the end of this year.

We had 6888 on Nov 25, and today we're at 7202.  Thats 314 in the past week :eek:

I'll even play along and say Christmas day is the day we'll hit 8000

You are probably a lot nearer than I am, George.  I used the average from the entire life of the list which is ten per day.  I guess maybe I should have weighted it more based on current as you did, rather than the early days.  Oh well.  

Charlie V.

Why are so many just now finding this site?

Why are so many just now finding this site?

We are not being found by "many".  I think there are just a few people generating all the new members.  Spencer could probably tell us more about this, but doubt that he will.  Its been a long time since he's posted anything.

My bet is January 15. Working on your winder handle.
Dave

Hey George!  Only 663 to go as of right now.  It is beginning to look like you may win a subscription to your own publication, or are family members excluded?

Charlie V.

Charlie,

Only 567 to go now!

I'm surprised that everyone hasn't made a guess on this.  After all this is a contest with no cost to enter and you may actually win something.

I'm still sticking with my Christmas Day entry.  (and yes, I can enter my own contest).

If anyone wants to change their guess now, feel free to do so.

NEW RULE..... no changes or new guesses after we reach the 7700 mark.

Based on a second chance option I have polished my top secret crystal ball several times and my new entry is January 2, 2010 to reach the 8000 mark.

I cannot answer your question, George.  It could be folks have no sense of fun and adventure, or it could be some are waiting to enter for a 7999 count to have a strategic advantage. I think the 7700 cut off is a wise idea. In a nutshell, it does not matter.  My January 2 entry is a sure winner.

Charlie V.

Since we're at 7561 and still under the 7700 mark, I'll revise my entry to be 12/29/09.

At the moment only entrants other than myself are Charlie 1/2/10 and Dave 1/15/10. I'm ignoring jahaze's entry of 12/1/2170 because none of us will be around that date to see how many subscribers there are!

At the rate we're going I think we'll reach 7700 by this weekend, so you'd better revise or get your guess in during the next couple days.  After 7700 is reached entries and revisions are closed.

Just in case you don't know what you can win.  It is a 6 month subscription to Western Antique Iron Trader.

http://www.irontrader.com

Just as a wild guess I will say 8000 by Jan. 31, 2010.

Just as a wild guess I will say 8000 by Jan. 31, 2010.

Think you may want to move your date up a bit.  I'm thinking we'll pass the 7700 mark this weekend.  Although I must admit that it is cheaper for me if someone in the U.S. wins rather than a Canadian as it costs $1 just to mail an issue to Canada.